By Easy-Forex | Daily Forex Analysis | Mon, Apr 16, 2012
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) weak
Chinese GDP on Friday inspired risk off selling which turned into a
Global stockmarket sell off. Adding to the fears was the European debt
crisis returning via Spanish debt which climbed back above 6%. The US
Consumer Sentiment index fell slightly as well to 75.7 vs. 76.2
previously. Looking ahead, April NY FED Manufacturing forecast at 18mil vs. 20mil previously. Also March Retail Sales forecast at 0.4% vs. 1.1% previously.
The Euro (EUR) the
EUR/USD is approaching 1.3000 and the key level may break this time
with Spanish debt continue to fall in value. The concern on Friday was
that Spanish banks were holding too much of the debt and that a coming
recession in Spain will pressure the Spanish banks via real estate loan
defaults. Suggestions emerged over the weekend asking for more money
into the ECB bond buying program but politic strains especially in
France and Germany are going to make this more and more difficult. The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD was not immune to the safe haven flows of USD buying and we saw a move to 1.5850.
EUR/GBP has broken 0.8230 and is grinding to 0.8200 taking advantage of
the Euro weakness to make a push at the critical level. March PPI came
in hot at 4.1% vs. 3.6% forecast y/y. Looking ahead, February Trade Balance forecast at 18bn vs. 20.2bn previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) the
USD/JPY was caught by risk off selling on the crosses but did not fall
much as the USD also strengthened and the BOJ tried to talk down the
Yen. The Y80 level is close and the natural target for sellers and noted
support. Australian Dollar (AUD) the
AUD/USD is being crunched lower as stock markets fall and the Chinese
economy slows down faster than expected. The market is eyeing month lows
new 1.0200 and then on to 1.000 if the risk off trading environment
continues. Last year the market took the Aussie to 0.9500 at the height
of the European Debt Crisis Fear.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold
was dragged lower as the USD strength outpaced safe haven demand from
riskier government debt. The outlook is mixed with Gold strength better
expressed against the Euro going forward.Oil came under pressure as China GDP slowed and Iran started talks with the West over the weekend.
Pairs to watch
AUD/USD To test 1.0230 in coming sessions?
EUR/GBP To test the key 0.8200 level in coming sessions?
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
Currency
|
Sup 2
|
Sup 1
|
Spot
|
Res 1
|
Res 2
|
EUR/USD
|
1.2974
|
1.3004
|
1.3025
|
1.3164
|
1.3300
|
USD/JPY
|
80.00
|
80.60
|
80.60
|
81.80
|
82.80
|
GBP/USD
|
1.5801
|
1.5842
|
1.594
|
1.6000
|
1.6090
|
AUD/USD
|
1.0180
|
1.0230
|
1.0320
|
1.0470
|
1.0558
|
XAU/USD
|
1600.00
|
1630
|
1647
|
1664
|
1683
|
OIL/USD
|
100.80
|
102.00
|
102.20
|
103.80
|
105.00
|