By Easy-Forex | Daily Forex Analysis | Tue, Apr 17, 2012
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the
market opened weak Monday morning but when support was found going into
the European session at the major 1.3000 EUR/USD support we saw a
market wide short squeeze. US stocks rallied and the USD was sold as the
buyers were caught long in the safe haven. March Retail sales showed
signs of life up 0.8% vs. 0.4% forecast m/m. Looking ahead, US March
Housing Starts forecast at 1.0% vs. -1.1% previously. Also Bank of
Canada Interest Rate Decision forecast to hold at 1.0%.
The Euro (EUR) the
EUR/USD tested 1.3000 twice before buyers took control and we saw a
sharp rally back to 1.3150 even as the mood in debt markets continued to
show Spanish debt fear. The outlook is mixed with a clean break of
1.3000 needed soon or the market will begin to ignore the European debt
crisis and focus on stock markets for direction. The Sterling (GBP) struggled
to take advantage of the EUR/USD short squeeze with the EUR/GBP also
moving higher which capped the major’s gains. The Outlook is for more
range trading and potential downside if the situation in Spain
deteriorates rapidly. Looking ahead, German April ZEW Survey forecast at 20 vs. 22.3 previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) the
USD/JPY slumped in Asia as the Yen crosses fell sharply led by the
EUR/JPY. The mood improved in the European and US sessions but the
USD/JPY finished at day lows with an Y80 test likely in coming days. BOJ
officials are expected to be vocal and we may see semi-official at the
level buying to slow the decent. Australian Dollar (AUD) the
AUD/USD hit day lows as the EUR/USD tested 1.3000 before reversing with
the major’s short squeeze. Traders sold into the rally though which was
capped at 1.0380 and we are once again coming under selling pressure
going into Tuesday Asian trade. The outlook is for more losses as the
slowdown in China becomes more prevalent. Looking ahead March RBA
meeting minutes released.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold was mixed pivoting the $1650 level consolidating the recent rally.Oil selling came in hard at the start of the US session but the market found support at $102 and we reversed closing above $103.
Pairs to watch
AUD/USD risk skewed to downside going forward
EUR/GBP Selling into strength to take advantage of the downtrend
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
Currency
|
Sup 2
|
Sup 1
|
Spot
|
Res 1
|
Res 2
|
EUR/USD
|
1.2974
|
1.3004
|
1.3120
|
1.3164
|
1.3300
|
USD/JPY
|
79.50
|
80.00
|
80.45
|
81.80
|
82.80
|
GBP/USD
|
1.5801
|
1.5842
|
1.5890
|
1.6000
|
1.6090
|
AUD/USD
|
1.0180
|
1.0230
|
1.0345
|
1.0470
|
1.0558
|
XAU/USD
|
1600.00
|
1630
|
1649
|
1664
|
1683
|
OIL/USD
|
100.80
|
102.00
|
103.10
|
103.80
|
105.00
|