By Easy-Forex | Daily Forex Analysis | Wed, Apr 18, 2012
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the investor
mood brightened again over night after the IMF upgraded global growth forecasts
and a Spanish Debt Auction went well. US stock markets soared and were up over
200 points on the Dow at one stage leading the USD to be sold as safe haven
demand dropped. Looking ahead, Crude Oil
Inventories forecast at 1.6mn vs. 2.8mn previously.
The Euro (EUR) the market attempted
to rally for a second day against the downtrend with the Spanish Bond Auction
successful and the German ZEW Business Confidence Survey surprising the market
with an increase to 23.4 vs. 22.3 previously. The EUR/USD hit profit taking
above 1.3150 but is giving the sellers pause for thought with its bullish price
action in the last two days. The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD roared back
to life with the buyers given the green light to push the major back above
1.5950. The 1.6000 is now the target and although we traded above the level only
a few weeks ago we failed to hold it after the market mood soured. EUR/GBP is
still sitting at the lower 0.8200 region and testing the patience of those
looking for a break lower. Looking ahead, April BOE Meeting Minutes
forecast at 9-0. Also UK February Unemployment Rate forecast at 8.4.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) enjoyed a push
higher in the USD/JPY and most crosses as the stock markets around soared. The
outlook is mixed with the recent selling providing good value for long speculators
and traders wary of getting caught short if the mood continues to brighten. Australian Dollar (AUD) the
AUD/USD tricked Asian investors again with the selling pushing the AUD/USD to
fresh week lows before reversing to fresh week highs as the sellers turned
buyers given the stock market rally. The RBA minutes have increased the chance
of a rate cut in May but the real decider is the Q1 Inflation data out next
Tuesday.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold was volatile
dipping sharply before reversing back to open levels at $1650 an ounce. Oil continued to
rally tracking the stock market and weak USD up to $105 before easing slightly
into the close.
Pairs to watch
EUR/CHF Waiting for a bounce or 1.2000 break?
XAU/USD Buyers back in control?
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency
|
Sup 2
|
Sup 1
|
Spot
|
Res 1
|
Res 2
|
|
EUR/USD
|
1.2974
|
1.2995
|
1.3120
|
1.3164
|
1.3213
|
|
USD/JPY
|
79.50
|
80.00
|
81.20
|
81.80
|
82.80
|
|
GBP/USD
|
1.5801
|
1.5842
|
1.5930
|
1.6000
|
1.6090
|
|
AUD/USD
|
1.0180
|
1.0230
|
1.0405
|
1.0470
|
1.0558
|
|
XAU/USD
|
1600.00
|
1630
|
1651
|
1664
|
1683
|
|
OIL/USD
|
102.00
|
103.00
|
104.30
|
105.00
|
107.00
|