By Easy-Forex | Daily Forex Analysis | Tue, Apr 10, 2012
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) with
most stock markets still closed on Monday we saw a small push lower in
Asia before grinding higher for the rest of the day on the back of
bargain hunting. The only data yesterday was Chinese CPI which was
higher than expected and raised questions as to whether they can loosen
monetary policy to support a faltering growth outlook. Looking ahead, February Wholesale Inventories at 0.5% vs. 0.4%.
The Euro (EUR) the
EUR/USD moved back above 1.3100 as light markets kept the 1.3000 level
safe for now. A break of the key level could see a move lower to 1.2850
and more pressure on the crosses. Yields on Spanish and Italian bonds
increased again and is a worrying sign the debt crisis may come back. The Sterling (GBP) GBP/USD
grinded back above 1.5900 and is showing strength on GBP/JPY and
EUR/GBP. The outlook is mixed with a EUR/USD slump likely to drag the
GBP/USD lower while the upside is linked to risk appetite and the
US/global recovery.Looking ahead, February Trade balance forecast at 13.6bn vs. 14.2bn previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) the
USD/JPY selling eased and we saw a small bounce to Y81.60 with the
crosses also enjoying small rallies overnight. The downside is likely to
continue with the EUR/JPY cross under pressure and the AUD/JPY falling
on China concerns. Australian Dollar (AUD) stopped
falling even with the hot Chinese CPI number finding support at 1.0260
and bouncing above 1.0300. The AUD/USD has been steadily falling for the
last 4 weeks and could test Parity soon if the EUR/USD falls and China
continues to falter. Looking ahead, March AUD Business Confidence Index
previously at 1.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold was very quiet in holiday markets yesterday sticking to a $5 range for most of the day under $1650.Oil dipped to $101 before finding support and rallying to fresh day highs above $102.50.
Pairs to watch
EUR/GBP Clear downtrend has to break support at 0.8200 to continue
EUR/CHF Can 1.2000 and the SNB hold the selling pressure?
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency
|
Sup 2
|
Sup 1
|
Spot
|
Res 1
|
Res 2
|
|
EUR/USD
|
1.2950
|
1.3000
|
1.3105
|
1.3110
|
1.3180
|
|
USD/JPY
|
80.00
|
81.00
|
81.75
|
82.00
|
82.80
|
|
GBP/USD
|
1.5801
|
1.5842
|
1.5900
|
1.6000
|
1.6090
|
|
AUD/USD
|
1.0180
|
1.0260
|
1.0300
|
1.0470
|
1.0558
|
|
XAU/USD
|
1600.00
|
1613
|
1645
|
1648
|
1697
|
|
OIL/USD
|
100.00
|
101.00
|
102.30
|
103.00
|
105.00
|