By Easy-Forex | Daily Forex Analysis | Thu, Apr 12, 2012
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) FED
speak Yellen hit the airwaves playing down speculation the FED will
stop supporting the US economy anytime soon. Fed Speak from Lockheart
suggested more bond buying was an option from the central bank and this
combined with Yellen to reverse US stock market losses for their first
gain in 5 sessions. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at 355k vs. 357k previously. February Trade balance forecast at -52bn vs. -52.6bn previously.
The Euro (EUR) the
EUR/USD tested 1.3150 as Yields in the Eurozone fell in a rare
reprieve. ECB members were talking up the ECB support for the Spanish
bond market and pleading for more time for the reforms to flow through
to the economy. Time will tell how much patience the bond vigilantes
will have going forward. The Sterling (GBP) the
relief rally played out on the GBP/USD by consolidating above 1.5900.
We are very close to 1.6000 and recent 2012 highs so this is causing
buyers hesitation. GBP/JPY is slipping but EUR/GBP is pressuring the
0.8240 level and could break at any moment. Looking ahead, February
Industrial Production forecast at -0.3% vs. 0.2% previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY
moved back above Y81 but is not convincing in it recovery and could
test Y80 or Y80.60 in coming sessions if the downside is tested again.
The Fed Speak from US officials is not helping the USD/JPY as much of
the 2012 move higher is on the back of normalization in US monetary
policy faster than first expected. Australian Dollar (AUD) the
AUD/USD tracked US stocks higher and we saw a sharp spike to fresh week
highs on strong March Jobs numbers. Forecast at +6k we saw a +44k
result and the AUD/USD is threatening resistance at 1.0380.
Oil & Gold (XAU) consolidated above the $1653-$1660 and we are looking to grind higher as the US Fed speakers support.Oil
surged with positive stocks and weak USD back to $103 with the $100
test going to have to wait as buyers took back control overnight.
Pairs to watch
EUR/USD below 1.3160 targeting 1.3000 test
EUR/GBP Pressure to break lower 0.8200 key support
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
Currency
|
Sup 2
|
Sup 1
|
Spot
|
Res 1
|
Res 2
|
EUR/USD
|
1.2950
|
1.3000
|
1.3115
|
1.3110
|
1.3180
|
USD/JPY
|
80.00
|
80.60
|
81.00
|
81.80
|
82.80
|
GBP/USD
|
1.5801
|
1.5842
|
1.5915
|
1.6000
|
1.6090
|
AUD/USD
|
1.0180
|
1.0230
|
1.0350
|
1.0470
|
1.0558
|
XAU/USD
|
1600.00
|
1630
|
1660
|
1663
|
1697
|
OIL/USD
|
100.00
|
101.00
|
102.45
|
103.00
|
105.00
|