By Easy-Forex | Daily Forex Analysis | Thu, Apr 19, 2012
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD)
most markets fell overnight as the stock markets pulled
back on profit taking and the USD was strong against most except the resurgent
British Pound. The market is awaiting the Spanish long term bond Auctions today
in Europe for direction for the rest of the week. Looking ahead, Weekly
Jobless Claims forecast at 370k vs. 380k previously. Also ahead, March Home
Sales forecast at 4.62mn vs. 4.59mn.
The Euro (EUR) The EUR/USD fell briefly
below 1.3100 in the European session closing at opening levels but in striking distance of
resistance at 1.3150 if today’s Spanish bond Auction comes in strong and spurs
a rally. The EUR/GBP fell as the GBP soared and should fall further given the
major technical break. The Sterling (GBP) the main mover in
the markets Wednesday as we saw GBP/USD break above 1.6000 after the MPC
minutes showed those members looking to increase the UK Asset Purchase program (printing
money) had decreased to only 1 in the April MPC Meeting. EUR/GBP finally broke
0.8200 after weeks of teasing the level. Looking ahead, Spanish
10 year Bond Auction.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) The USD/JPY stayed
in a 25 pip range with the USD remaining supported and action only on the
GBP/JPY cross which punched back above Y130. The outlook will come down to
EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY which will help direct the USD/JPY between Y80-Y83. Only a
break of Y80 and lack of action of BOJ would change the outlook for the medium
term. Australian Dollar
(AUD) the AUD/USD is struggling to find direction of late
with sellers failing at 1.0300 and buyers scared close to 1.0450. The market
will be looking to the European debt markets and the stocks later tonight for
fresh direction. UPDATE Brazil Cuts
Interest Rates by 75Bps to help stimulate.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold was heavy falling
slowly all day down to $1640 an ounce. Oil also weakened with the market coming
reversing the week’s rally quickly.
Pairs to watch
EUR/USD The Spanish Bond Auction to set direction?
GBP/USD Above 1.6000 are we into a fresh Trend?
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
Currency
|
Sup 2
|
Sup 1
|
Spot
|
Res 1
|
Res 2
|
EUR/USD
|
1.2974
|
1.2995
|
1.3110
|
1.3164
|
1.3213
|
USD/JPY
|
79.50
|
80.00
|
81.35
|
81.80
|
82.80
|
GBP/USD
|
1.5801
|
1.5842
|
1.6025
|
1.6090
|
1.6170
|
AUD/USD
|
1.0180
|
1.0230
|
1.0355
|
1.0470
|
1.0558
|
XAU/USD
|
1600.00
|
1630
|
1637
|
1664
|
1683
|
OIL/USD
|
101.00
|
102.00
|
102.50
|
103.00
|
105.0
|