By Easy-Forex | Daily Forex Analysis | Mon, Apr 09, 2012
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) disappointing
US Jobs data sent most markets sharply lower with risk taken off the
table Friday night. The chances of QE3 increased reversing the post FOMC
minutes USD/JPY rally and we saw fresh month lows under Y82. The Euro
and Aussie fell as safe haven demand for the USD outweighed the change
in US monetary policy expectations as evidenced by the drop in long term
US bond yields.March NonFarm gained 120k vs. 203k expected. Looking ahead, March Employment Trend previously at 107.5.
The Euro (EUR) very quiet markets on Friday with most European traders away and US only in for a half day on Easter celebrations. The EUR/USD popped higher immediately after the jobs data but EUR/JPY dragged it lower again. The Sterling (GBP) ignored most of the post jobs movement falling against the GBP/JPY but gaining against most other currencies with solid support for the GBP/USD lately. Looking ahead, Most of Europe Closed for Easter Holiday.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) crashed lower after the jobs data falling to below Y81.50 and we moved to Y81.30 on Monday morning with little support now that US Yields suggest more QE3 or longer till the FED can change course on the monetary policy. Australian Dollar (AUD) continued to trend lower but found support just above the previous low of the week near 1.0260 and able to consolidate at these levels. AUD/JPY has fallen near 5 Yen since the selling began a few weeks ago and is threatening to drag the major to parity.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold gained as the bad US jobs data suggested a loose money policy from the US for some time to come.Oil is under pressure and heading to $102 as Iran seeks to reestablish talks with the US as sanctions take its toll on the major Oil producer.
Pairs to watch
EUR/USD to test 1.3000?
EUR/CHF Can 1.2000 and the SNB hold the selling pressure?
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
Currency
|
Sup 2
|
Sup 1
|
Spot
|
Res 1
|
Res 2
|
EUR/USD
|
1.2950
|
1.3000
|
1.3075
|
1.3110
|
1.3180
|
USD/JPY
|
80.00
|
81.00
|
81.30
|
82.00
|
82.80
|
GBP/USD
|
1.5801
|
1.5842
|
1.5875
|
1.6000
|
1.6090
|
AUD/USD
|
1.0180
|
1.0260
|
1.0290
|
1.0470
|
1.0558
|
XAU/USD
|
1600.00
|
1613
|
1641
|
1648
|
1697
|
OIL/USD
|
100.00
|
101.00
|
102.00
|
103.00
|
105.00
|