By Easy-Forex | Daily Forex Analysis | Wed, Apr 11, 2012
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) traders
sold heavily on Tuesday with the weak US jobs numbers combining with increasing
European Bond Yields. Fears are rising that the Debt crisis might storm back
into the markets with Spanish and Italian budgets both under pressure and
recessions forecasted for most austerity hit EU countries. Looking ahead, Crude Oil
Inventories forecast at 2mn vs. 9mn barrels the week before.
The Euro (EUR) although it was in
the center of the storm the downside was limited as solid support was found
above 1.3000. More selling was seen on the EUR/JPY which hit fresh month lows
under Y106. The outlook is for more selling why the Spanish and Italian bonds
continue to fall sharply. The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD fell
back but found support in the lower 1.5800 region before reversing back with
the support seen on the EUR/USD. The outlook is mixed but if EUR/GBP can break 0.8200
and move to the historical support at 0.8000 then the GBP/USD should be spared
any large moves from European debt shocks. Update German March
WPI at 0.9% vs. 1.0% previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) the USD/JPY sell
off continued with crosses slumping helping send the major below Y81 and to
Y80.60 where large buy orders from semi-official government agencies stabilized
the market. The BOJ is likely to try and protect the Y80 with jawboning at
least and could announce new measures to help the market reverse direction. Australian Dollar (AUD) the
AUD/USD came under pressure with risk off trade in Europe reversing an earlier
rally to 1.0350 and falling to fresh multimonth lows near 1.0230. April
Consumer sentiment fell along with housing finance and this adds to calls for
the RBA to cut rates in May. Looking ahead, March Unemployment
Change forecast at 6.7k vs. -15.4k previously.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold dipped in
Europe but when support was found we reversed direction sharply to fresh day highs
above $1660. Oil
was sold back to $101 but support was found and $100
has not been tested yet.
Pairs to watch
EUR/USD no 1.3000 test this time? Or more debt
crisis?
EUR/CHF Will the market rally now 1.2000 has held?
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
Currency
|
Sup 2
|
Sup 1
|
Spot
|
Res 1
|
Res 2
|
EUR/USD
|
1.2950
|
1.3000
|
1.3120
|
1.3110
|
1.3180
|
USD/JPY
|
80.00
|
80.60
|
80.75
|
81.80
|
82.80
|
GBP/USD
|
1.5801
|
1.5842
|
1.5911
|
1.6000
|
1.6090
|
AUD/USD
|
1.0180
|
1.0230
|
1.0295
|
1.0470
|
1.0558
|
XAU/USD
|
1600.00
|
1630
|
1657
|
1663
|
1697
|
OIL/USD
|
100.00
|
101.00
|
101.45
|
103.00
|
105.00
|