By Easy-Forex | Daily Forex Analysis | Fri, Apr 13, 2012
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) risk
was off the table on Friday in Asian trade as the China GDP reversed
the positive momentum for a second day of gains from US markets
overnight. The Q1 GDP came in at 8.1% vs. 8.3% forecast and rumours of
9.0% overnight. The big data miss was played out best through the
AUD/USD which fell over 60 pips immediately after the result. Looking ahead, April UoM Consumer Sentiment forecast 76.2 vs. 76.2 previously. Also Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks.
The Euro (EUR) The
EUR/USD broke above the 1.3150 and then onto 1.3200 in the US session
as the positive stock market and sentiment supported. The reversal from
the China data in Asia so far has only brought the major back to 1.3160
and we are watching carefully the European and US reaction tonight. The Sterling (GBP) EUR/GBP
tried but failed to break on the downside and the GBP/USD moved higher
but still under 1.6000 while we wait for further stimulus. The GBP/JPY
is getting a lot of attention with some looking to buy below the Y130
level for a potential rally higher. Looking ahead, March PPI Output forecast at 0.2% vs. 0.5% previously m/m.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) the
USD/JPY edged slightly higher and then spiked higher in Early Asia on
reports that North Korea had launched a missile. The missile failure and
then the China GDP miss sent the crosses sharply lower dragging the
major back under Y81. Australian Dollar (AUD) had
a very volatile 24 hours surging on strong March Jobs data and hitting
week highs above 1.0450 before the Chinese data shock. The commodity
currency then fell sharply lower. The Chances of a return to the
downtrend are very real now the China slowdown has been confirmed.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold
continued higher this time on USD weakness but traders have to be
careful with each gain leading to a pullback before new buyers emerge.Oil Pushed towards $104 but failed to break the level and came under pressure in Asia after the Chinese data miss.
Pairs to watch
AUD/USD falling as the China slowdown real now?
EUR/GBP needs another downside test?
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
Currency
|
Sup 2
|
Sup 1
|
Spot
|
Res 1
|
Res 2
|
EUR/USD
|
1.3060
|
1.3120
|
1.3170
|
1.3220
|
1.3300
|
USD/JPY
|
80.00
|
80.60
|
81.00
|
81.80
|
82.80
|
GBP/USD
|
1.5801
|
1.5842
|
1.5940
|
1.6000
|
1.6090
|
AUD/USD
|
1.0180
|
1.0230
|
1.0385
|
1.0470
|
1.0558
|
XAU/USD
|
1600.00
|
1630
|
1675
|
1697
|
1710
|
OIL/USD
|
100.00
|
101.00
|
103.20
|
103.80
|
105.00
|